The portal says San Antonio home prices are up 30.6% year over year, with a median sale price of $650,000 for the three months ending May 2026. Pasco County as a whole, over roughly the same window, moved 1.2%, with a median closer to $344,000. Two ZIP codes sitting next to each other on the same stretch of State Road 52 do not appreciate at twenty-five times different speeds. Something else is happening inside the 33576 median, and if you are writing offers off the headline number, you are almost certainly mispricing.
The short version: San Antonio's median is a mix problem, not an appreciation story. Three very different sub-markets are being averaged into one figure, and the mix has shifted. Once you separate them, what your money buys becomes legible again.
The Number That Contradicts The Story
If the 30.6% jump were real underlying appreciation, price per square foot would have moved with it. It did not. Redfin's own data has San Antonio's median price per square foot at $230, up 1.3% year over year. Homes are not worth thirty percent more per square foot in 33576 than they were a year ago. They are, on average, bigger, newer, and in different communities than the homes that closed a year ago.
Here is the compression, in one view:
| Metric, 3 months ending May 2026 | San Antonio (33576) | Pasco County |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $650,000 | ~$344,000 |
| Year-over-year change | +30.6% | +1.2% |
| Median $/sqft change | +1.3% | Roughly flat |
The county-wide picture, drawn from the November 2025 Pasco STAR report, is a market with a median 47 days to contract, an average sale price near $390,000, and sellers netting roughly 95% of their original list price on 599 closed sales. That is a balanced, slow-cadence market. San Antonio's 30% headline is not that market. It is a composition effect.
Three Sub-Markets, One ZIP Code
San Antonio contains at least three distinct buyer pools. They rarely compete for the same house, they carry very different monthly costs, and they respond to different comps. Treating them as one market is the reason the median looks the way it does.
Mirada and the new-lagoon single-family pool. Mirada is the master-planned community anchored by a 15-acre MetroLagoon, marketed as the largest man-made lagoon in the country, with a Publix at the Market at Mirada, ULTRAFi 500/500 Mbps internet infrastructure, and access to the Kirkland Ranch Academy of Innovation. It sits about three miles from the future Pasco Town Center, described in developer materials as the county's second-largest current investment. The community is being delivered by a stack of builders: Lennar, D.R. Horton, Ryan Homes, Casa Fresca, Dream Finders, Homes by WestBay, and Maronda. Product ranges from Maronda townhomes starting in the $273s at roughly 1,694 square feet to larger single-family plans that pull the ZIP-level median upward every time a batch of them closes.
Tampa Bay Golf & Country Club, the established 55+ resale pool. Development began in 1994, and the community now holds 1,336 single-family residences around 27 holes of golf and a 15,000-square-foot clubhouse. Homes were built by K. Hovnanian, Lennar, Transeastern, U.S. Homes, and Engle Homes, and floor plans run 1,276 to 2,500-plus square feet. Current active listings are priced between roughly $213,000 and $450,000, with 45 homes on the market at last count. HOA fees on single-family homes run $91 to $425, with a separate country-club membership structure. This inventory pulls the ZIP median downward every time it closes.
Historic downtown San Antonio and unincorporated acreage. The colony town itself, plus the acreage and lakefront parcels wrapped around it, produce a thin, high-variance trickle of closings. Any single acreage sale in this pool can visibly move a three-month median because the volume is so low.
The 30.6% jump is what happens when the Mirada delivery cadence accelerates and closings concentrate in the higher-priced, larger-square-foot end of the mix while the resale side stays where it was. Movoto counted 320 homes sold in San Antonio in June 2026, up from 263 the year prior. More closings, weighted toward new construction, is exactly the recipe for a mix-shifted median.
The median moved. The market did not, at least not by thirty percent. Read the median as a signal about which shelf is producing volume, not as a signal about what any particular home is worth.
The Friction Nobody Prices In Until The Inspection Period
Two homes at the same list price in this ZIP can carry very different monthly costs and very different negotiation dynamics. This is where a mispriced offer becomes visible.
Carry costs are not comparable across sub-markets. A resale in Tampa Bay Golf & Country Club carries an HOA in the $91 to $425 range that already includes a 24-hour guard, cable, internet, common-area maintenance, and recreation. Country-club membership fees, where they apply, sit on top of that and are worth confirming with the membership office before you write. A Mirada home carries its own HOA plus a CDD assessment funding the lagoon, amenity infrastructure, and roads. Neither number is inherently better. They are just not the same shape, and the buyer who compares list prices without pulling both cost stacks together is comparing two different products.
New-construction incentives distort resale comps. Builders in Mirada are running aggressive 2026 incentive programs. D.R. Horton, for example, is publicly advertising an up-to-4% buyer-agent commission structure on contracts written and closed between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Ryan Homes is quoting from around $2,403 a month based on a 5.625% rate and a 6.267% APR. These programs typically pair with rate buy-downs, closing-cost credits, or design-center allowances that do not appear in the closed sale price on public record. If you comp a Mirada resale against a new-build closing without adjusting for the incentive stack that moved the new build, you will overpay on the resale.
"Days on market" reads differently by sub-market. The county's 47-to-48-day median obscures a wider spread inside 33576. Standard Mirada floor plans, delivered in volume, move on a builder release schedule that has little to do with resale absorption. Tampa Bay Golf & Country Club resales trade in a slower, more price-sensitive rhythm. Acreage listings sit longer by nature. Treating any of these DOM figures as the local baseline will mislead your listing strategy or your offer timing.
Inspection findings run by product vintage, not by ZIP. The oldest Tampa Bay Golf & Country Club homes are three decades in. Roof age, HVAC replacements, and original polybutylene or early PEX plumbing are the standard inspection conversations there. Mirada homes are new-construction concrete-block builds under warranty, and the useful inspection conversations are different: grade and drainage on newly turned lots, stucco control-joint quality, and the punch list against the builder warranty before the one-year mark. The friction is real in both cases. It just looks nothing alike.
What This Means For A Real Offer
If you are buying, do not comp across sub-markets. Pull comparables from within Mirada, within Tampa Bay Golf & Country Club, or from the historic core and acreage pool, and stop there. When you comp a resale against a builder closing, adjust for the incentive stack that moved that closing, not the raw sale price. Ask early whether the community carries a CDD in addition to the HOA, and get both numbers into your carry math before you fall in love with a floor plan.
If you are selling, price against your own sub-market. A Tampa Bay Golf & Country Club owner watching the 33576 median rise 30% will list high, sit for months, and eventually chase the market down. A Mirada resale owner competing against next-quarter builder deliveries needs to price against the incentive-adjusted new-build number, not the sticker.
FAQ
Is the San Antonio market a bubble because the median is up 30%? No. The composition of what is closing has changed. Median $/sqft is up only 1.3% year over year, which is a much better proxy for underlying value change than the headline median.
Are new-construction incentives worth more than a resale price cut? Sometimes. A rate buy-down that shaves 100 basis points off the mortgage for the life of the loan can outrun a $20,000 resale price cut in total-cost terms. Run the incentive as a present-value number before you decide.
How do CDD assessments show up at closing? They show up on the tax bill as a non-ad valorem assessment. Ask the title company to break out CDD, HOA, and any capital-contribution fees on the closing statement so you see the full first-year carry before you sign.
Does 33576 include areas beyond the city of San Antonio proper? Yes. The ZIP covers Mirada, Tampa Bay Golf & Country Club, historic downtown, and a large ring of unincorporated Pasco land. That is precisely why the median behaves the way it does.
If you are weighing a purchase or a sale in 33576 and want the comp set that actually applies to your sub-market rather than the headline that averages all of them, Carr Signature Premier Group will pull the numbers, walk the carry costs, and price your move against the pool you are actually competing in. Request a Private Consultation & Home Valuation to start with the right median, not the loudest one.
